Beware of Dire Predictions
BY: SURESH DASA
Mar 08, LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA (SUN) — In studying the Sampradaya Sun’s recent article, "What's Dead? (Short Answer: All Of It)" by Karl Denninger of Market Ticker Forum, with commentary and predictions of future if not imminent events, it struck and reminded me of the many dire predictions of the past we have all been witness to, if not succumbed to with paranoia and fear of the times. So many of those dire predictions have failed to come to pass, or at best turned out to be predictions way ahead of their time. Karl Denninger is certainly a well respected and articulate author. Much of what he has predicted regarding the current market turmoil and crash has certainly already come to pass, making for a scary and potentially dire future for our economy. At the same time, we should all understand that the greatest minds of the world are working around the clock to save our economy and not allow it to fall into ruin.
I have found similarities to other authors and futurists of the past. I remember studying the book “Bankruptcy 1995: The Coming Collapse of America and How to Stop It”, first published in 1992. This book caused quite a stir in its day, but ultimately was blown off as nonsense. The predictions in the book however, seemed to have come to pass in our present day 2008-2009, some 16 years later. The book was designed to frighten readers into action. It contained a lucid explanation of America's deficit crisis. The book discussed the potential impact on ordinary citizens, businesses, industry, and the global economy, from America's national bankruptcy, and offered suggestions on how to avoid impending financial ruin.
The author projected that by 1995, interest payments on the national debt would overwhelm the Federal Government’s ability to pay the interest on the debt, because the tax receipts and other forms of income would no longer equal the debt outlay payments required. The two possible scenarios at that time would then become hyperinflation, followed by financial panic, both of which we have been experiencing in our present time. The author’s call to action stressed public pressure on politicians to reduce government deficits and the national debt. Contrary to the author’s predictions, however, the USA and world economies experienced a boom that lasted throughout the 1990’s, and well into the year 2000. This boom was followed by a short recession and large market sell-off into late 2002, and then followed again by an even greater boom into the end of 2007. The author’s predictions were mostly vindicated, true, and valid, but not in the imminent time frame predicted to take place.
Many of you also may remember all the dire predictions slated to take place when the clock struck twelve for Y2K. So many futurists, well-meaning economists, as well as senior ISKCON leaders predicted all kinds of doom for the world economy, whipping the public, as well as the devotees, into a huge frenzy, for an event that basically never came to pass. Remember all the people who stocked month’s worth of food and essentials for their personal survival, for a non-event that basically amounted to nothing and no big deal.
The same can be said for all the devotees who heard Srila Prabhupada’s prediction that a nuclear war would be taking place soon between Russia and the USA, starting as a nuclear exchange first by Pakistan and then by India. Many devotees immediately made preparations for that war, back in the mid-to-late 1970’s. Devotees moved to rural communities, far from predicted bomb blast ranges, sacrificing everything they had, for an event that was slated as imminent, but which did not take place in the expected moment. There is no doubt that the war will happen eventually almost as a certainty, some time in the near future. Both the USA and Russia have tens of thousands of nuclear missiles still pointed at each other, even to this day. All it takes is one hothead to push the button. What was said to happen some 36 years ago still has not happened to this day, but is virtually guaranteed to happen at any time, and at any moment.
What also comes to mind is a classic quote from Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest stock manipulators of the early 20th Century. It is from his fictionalized biography, written in 1923, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, the classic book on the Art of Speculation. Jesse Livermore started as a trader on Wall Street with less than a dollar, and parlayed that into a fortune of millions of dollars, only to lose it all, and then regain back his fortune multiple times. His book is almost required reading by most stock traders of the last 75 years, because so much of his advice is so pertinent to the market conditions of today. He stated that many times he would react to events that appeared imminent or about to take place in the next moment, when in actuality when they were going to take place might be months or even years ahead. He compared this phenomenon to viewing events that appeared to be right in front of him, but in actually was being viewed through the lenses of a telescope, some time way out into the future.
We have to wonder, as well, if Karl Denninger has a hidden motive behind his dire predictions. People that are not pure devotees of the Lord often maintain a hidden agenda that ultimately brings profit and benefit to themselves. Is Mr. Denninger trying to push up the price of gold by whipping people into a frenzy of fear, and selling all their savings and holdings? Perhaps he represents or sympathizes with the Christians, by promoting the "end times" and the second coming of Jesus Christ, in suggesting we prepare for impending doom in our financial system at any moment.
Srila Prabhupada stated that as long as there is a lack of spiritual sacrifice or yajna to Visnu, there will be shortages in society. Srila Prabhupada stated in Bhagavad-gita that a sadhu must be indifferent in times of shortage and scarcity, because that is the normal course of living in the material world - a world of constant duality and upheaval. It is much easier to worship and love God during times of plenty. The real test for us all is to go on serving the Lord with the same determination when everything is being taken away from us, and in times of great fear.
